The Sad State of Iraq
Andrew Sullivan puts the insurgency in Iraq into perspective. He quotes from a New York Times [reg. req.] article about the U.S. government’s quiet release of estimates of the civilian casualties:
Iraqi civilians and security forces were killed and wounded by insurgents at a rate of about 26 a day early in 2004, and at a rate of about 40 a day later that year. The rate increased in 2005 to about 51 a day, and by the end of August had jumped to about 63 a day.
Now, think about Sullivan’s comment:
It’s easy to dismiss these numbers from a distance, or to say they are a function of the insurgents’ failure to kill U.S. troops. You could even argue that this kind of widespread slaughter will help undermine the insurgency - as it murders more and more Muslims, and reveals the nihilism of the enemy. You could argue that the critical indicator is whether the political process is continuing and if the infrastructure can be better protected and rebuilt. At least, those are the more plausible arguments I’m hearing these days, as evidence of progress in Iraq. They’re not insane arguments. But imagine if the United States endured such a terrorist casualty rate. If you callibrate for population, imagine an America where 700 civilians or cops are murdered each day by insurgents able to operate at will. One 9/11 a week. And each week, the number grows. How likely is it that a successful transition to constitutional government can be maintained in such a climate?
Meanwhile, Nieman Watchdog asks questions that the mainstream press should be asking like “What’s Wrong With Cutting and Running?”
Lieutenant General William E. Odom, U.S. Army (Ret.) (resume) provides quite an answer.
He begins:
If I were a journalist, I would list all the arguments that you hear against pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq, the horrible things that people say would happen, and then ask: Aren’t they happening already? Would a pullout really make things worse? Maybe it would make things better.
Then he lists many of the arguments for staying and tears each one apart.
I’m not sure I buy it but he makes it clear that Iraq is a big mess and it’s not going to get better anytime soon without some major change in strategy.
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